Maps: Ukraine's incursion into Russia forces Moscow to make an important decision (2024)

Ukraine's shock incursion across the Russian border into Kursk Oblast may force important strategic decisions on Moscow as President Vladimir Putin's troops are taken as prisoners of war and supply lines are threatened. The Ukrainian attack took Russian forces by surprise, according to one U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s cross-border gambit allowed Kyiv to seize the battlefield initiative, long held by Russian forces who were able to dictate the time and place of fighting and force Ukrainian troops to expend manpower and equipment on defensive operations.

“It's been a very real success,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, now a senior director at the Atlantic Council, told USA TODAY. “The latest data, not confirmed, says they've taken as much as 750 square kilometers (289.5 square miles) and may have gone as far as 35 kilometers (21.75 miles) from the border.” 



One week in Kursk: See evolution of Ukraine's incursion across Russian border

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The war institute says Putin may have incorrectly assessed that Ukraine did not have the capacity for such an attack − and that Russia’s treatment of the international border as a dormant front line represents a strategic failure.

Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told USA TODAY that the attack was a "huge psychological success and morale success for the Ukrainians because it puts the Russians on their back foot. It surprised the Russian military. It makes them look incompetent for not protecting their border, and I think it's a huge morale boost to a Ukraine that's really needed something recently, even though it's had successes in the Black Sea, including against the Russian Navy and in Crimea."

"The tables have been turned, at least slightly and at least temporarily, with the Ukrainian incursion," said Jones, "This is a Ukrainian offensive operation. It looks very different from those we saw in 2023 or 2022, which were trying to retake territory that the Russians had seized in Ukraine. This is moving into Russian territory, which I think took the Russians by surprise. This was a real surprise attack."

The push into Kursk may force Russia into a decision to treat the border as a front rather than a dormant area, with implications for Moscow's deployment of personnel and materiel within Ukraine. The war study institute reports that Russian defensive forces appear to be hastily assembled and may be below intended strength and that Russian conscripts stationed in Kursk were unable to retreat and return to their units. The capture or death of conscripts poses a political risk to Putin because he would need to explain the casualties to the Russian public, according to the war study institute.



"It's almost certain that the Russians are reconsidering force deployments, but reconsidering is not the same as deciding to change those deployments in a major way," Herbst said.

"Russia, politically, can't afford to let this happen again," said Jones, "I think it'll force them both to keep an eye on intelligence indications and warnings and also devote more forces to protecting the border."

A video posted online showed a "heavily damaged" Russian convoy in Kursk filmed early Friday, according to BBC Verify. The uploader was later arrested by Russian authorities.

Herbst said that “Russian efforts to stop (Ukrainian forces) have so far been at best fruitless and at worst disastrous. The destruction of that armor column a few days ago was a disaster. There are still not enough Russian forces to stop this offensive.”
 But Herbst cautioned that more Russian personnel and equipment may be headed to the area and may be able to resist Ukrainian forces.

Reuters reports that Russian tanks, artillery and rocket systems were moved to the southern Kursk region as Moscow "imposed anti-terrorism measures".

The operation could present a real problem for Putin according to Herbst, who suggests the Russian leader may be downplaying the severity of the incursion by declaring a counterterrorism operation. "A counterterrorism operation is not the same as a war where you have opposing troops on your soil, which of course is what you have here."

The incursion comes as prominent Russian oligarchs are speaking out against the war in Ukraine. In an interview with Nikkei Asia, Oleg Deripaska, a billionaire metal magnate with close ties to Putin, called the war "mad" and criticized Russia's defense spending. "If you want to stop the war, first you need to stop the fire," he said, calling for an "immediate, unconditional cease-fire" in Ukraine.

Deripaska "does not seem to be a candidate for defenestration, so watching what happens to him and watching to see if there will be other voices like that could be an indication of things coming apart in Moscow," said Herbst, referring to a long string of suspicious deaths of Kremlin critics.

According to The Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin released a half-hour video of Putin reprimanding federal and regional officials with the apparent intention of sending a message to other government officials to refrain from commenting on Ukraine's Kursk incursion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the operation in a post Saturday to X, formerly Twitter, describing a push to drive the war into "the aggressor's territory." Zelenskyy thanked international partners for implementing sanctions against Russia and the United States for new defense aid, including Stinger missiles, HIMARS mobile artillery ammunition and 155mm artillery shells.

Beyond Kursk, Jones said Russia's main effort for offensive operations has been Eastern Ukraine. "It's been primarily to increase control of areas. We've seen a big push in Luhansk Oblast," said Jones, "The challenge has been they haven't been able to take areas quickly and they haven't been able to take advantage of changes in strategy. So they're taking huge casualties when they do it."

"Huge casualties to the degree that were somewhere around 500,000 total casualties since the war began, which is enormous. These are astronomical numbers that Russia or the Soviet Union haven't faced since World War II."

Read more about the war in Ukraine:

  • One week in Kursk: Maps show Ukraine offensive as Russia builds trenches after attack
  • What's behind Russia's sluggish response to Ukrainian raid?
  • Ukrainian attack edges into Russian city, site of pipeline, railroad
  • After Ukraine troops cross into Kursk, Putin blasts 'provocation'
  • From 2023: Maps of Ukraine counteroffensive and Russian defenses show advances, battle lines
  • From 2022: Fighting rages around Europe's biggest nuclear power plant

Keep up with news abroad and its impact in the US: Sign up for USA TODAY's Russia-Ukraine War newsletter.

Contributing: Carlie Procell, Tom Vanden Brook and Dan Morrison

Maps: Ukraine's incursion into Russia forces Moscow to make an important decision (2024)

FAQs

How much land did Ukraine take from Russia? ›

By 11 November 2022, the Institute for the Study of War calculated that Ukrainian forces had liberated an area of 74,443 km2 (28,743 sq mi) from Russian occupation, leaving Russia with control of about 18% of Ukraine's territory.

Where is Ukraine on the map in relation to Russia? ›

Ukraine is bordered by Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea to the south, Moldova and Romania to the southwest, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland to the west.

Where is Ukraine on a map of Europe what is significant about its position? ›

The map shows Ukraine, a country at the crossroads between Europe and Asia situated in eastern Europe, north of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine's fertile land was known as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union; now, it has become the breadbasket of Europe.

How much of Donetsk does Russia control? ›

In the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, around 55% of Donetsk Oblast came under the control of Russia and the DPR by June 2022. In the south of Donetsk Oblast, the Russian Armed Forces laid siege to Mariupol for almost three months.

How many tanks does Russia have left? ›

The IISS Military Balance 2024 report says Russia has around 1,750 tanks of various types—including more than 200 of the T-90 variety—remaining, with up to 4,000 tanks in storage.

What language is spoken in Ukraine? ›

The official language of Ukraine is Ukrainian, a Slavic language, which is spoken regularly by 88% of Ukraine's population at home in their personal life, and as high as 87% at work or study. It is followed by Russian which is spoken by 34% in their personal life.

What was Ukraine called before 1922? ›

1917–1920: Ukrainian People's Republic; controlled most of Ukraine, with the exception of West Ukraine. April–December 1918: Ukrainian State (Ukrainian: Українська Держава, romanized: Ukrainska Derzhava) or "Second Hetmanate", after the Hetman Coup (Гетьманський переворот)

How big is Ukraine compared to Texas? ›

Ukraine is slightly smaller than Texas, coming in at 233,031 square miles while Texas sits at 268,597 square miles.

Is Ukraine in support of Israel? ›

The survey found that 69% of Ukrainians sympathize more with Israel, while 1% sympathize more with Palestine. Additionally, 18% of respondents sympathize with both sides equally, and 12% found it difficult to express a clear preference.

How much space has Russia taken from Ukraine? ›

Still, the area is dwarfed by the more than 100,000 square kilometers, or 18% of Ukraine's total territory, taken by Russia since the conflict started in 2014.

Who owns the Crimean peninsula? ›

The Soviet fleet in Crimea was also in contention, but a 1997 treaty allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Sevastopol. In 2014, the peninsula was occupied by Russian forces and annexed by Russia, but most countries recognise Crimea as Ukrainian territory.

What land does Russia control in Ukraine? ›

Russia occupies Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts. The amount of Ukrainian territory Russia occupied shifted during the year.

How many square miles is Ukraine? ›

Geographic location

The country borders Belarus in the north, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary in the west, Moldova and Romania in the south-west, and Russia in the east. The total geographic area of Ukraine is 603,700 square kilometers (233,100 sq mi).

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